Friday, May 21, 2010

Will the USA remain the economic superpower?

From a non-biased, non-patriotic point of view, do you feel that the USA will remain the super-power for another 20+ years? With the likes of China forever rising to power in both economic and military might, and the likes of the European Union and their currency the Euro constantly rising far above the dollar, do you think the USA will last?

Will the USA remain the economic superpower?
It's unlikely. On a per capita basis, we're only 9th in the world, with several countries already richer than us. The root cause, tho, of America's developing economic decline is debt. We have far too much of it. Americans owe too much money, saving and investing far too little. America has a massive national debt to the rest of the world, and has made entitlement promises to Americans -- Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security -- which have the entire country well on the road to functional insolvency. Debt is suffocating.





All of these factors are weighing on the US Dollar. Right now, America accounts for more than 1/4 of global GDP, which is why many people think it will last 'forever'. But the dollar, which is weak, weakening, and set to weaken *a LOT* further, is what will ultimately bring all these accounts due. As it weakens, our share of global GDP declines. The weak dollar also makes it much more expensive to import goods, and since we import the vast majority of the things we need, both nationally and individually, this means a lot of inflation in future.





Beyond our current share of GDP, the OTHER reason people usually cite for America's 'permanent' global superpower status is our military. But imagine a world -- not difficult to do -- where the dollar is so much weaker, making oil SO expensive that we can no longer fuel a military capable of projecting power.





That's where we're headed. America is, sadly, in the middle of a long term economic decline. Economic decline begets military decline. This is what happened to Greece, to Rome, to the Ottomans, to the French, the Spanish, the English. If history teaches anything, it's that it repeats. Nothing is certain except change.
Reply:unless nothing defies the usa, it will go on being super power in 20 years. but if the other countries like china, russia, and india merge their power, the usa's economic power will decrease. but i do not think that will happen like that. because the world is being governed by the money owners=capitalists. so it does not matter which country will be economic power. and i can say that super powered country is a subject for the ones who are in office.
Reply:My personal feeling is that we won't last much longer as the world's economic power. I think the major reason why is because of a lot of our social issues. I feel like, on average, the children are getting lazier, families are breaking apart, and these factors added to several others are breaking down our society. We will always have some of the brightest and most innovative people in the world, but I see that number decreasing in the future.





I'm in a graduate economics program, and I have to tell you that I am amazed at the ratio of Chinese and Indian (not Native American) students to American students. It's at least 10:1. These kids are so motivated to succeed and work so hard. I don't see the same thing from the American students. I realize that my school is a small sample, but I've lived in California, the Mountain West, and now New York and have encountered the same thing from coast to coast. Sorry about the rant!


No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.